Pumped to Dump?

Large traders await IBM earnings scheduled tomorrow. The IBM stock consistently touches its top at $117 and is toying with a breakout.
We don't think that will happen. Fundamentally, the stock is almost fairly valued. Technically, it has a strong resistance at 119. We wouldn't expect a strong surprise today. In the same time, any other result may trigger a sell-off.
There are all reasons to assume that large traders plan to push the stock lower. They have loaded their portfolios with put options.
We recommend to buy the bearish May 125/120 Put spread at 3.50. The expected profit = 1.50 or 43% in one month!